Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaccbe5da75dbd91170543c522c332fe977232ee07a541ed1f9e2b62b827adc69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 27c | 676.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 599.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 355.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 13c | 330.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 329.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 6c | 320.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 6c | 320.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 5c | 314.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 18c | 311.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 302.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 13c | 233.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 223.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 9c | 212.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 6c | 208.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 5c | 197.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 194.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…6119backed No | 75c | 146.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 24c | 129.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 124.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 115.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 99.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 20c | 96.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 27c | 79.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 76c | 79.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 68.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 57.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 55.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 52.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 21c | 48.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 36.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 79c | 34.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 27.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.