Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155e100757b77be578805108756e70adc1536f2cb188ff0f7f11c04cb2d15eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 64c | 3,247$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.54 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 1,158$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 32c | 1,072$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.09 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 1,071$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 79c | 1,019$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 3c | 976.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 33c | 855.89$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.44 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 30c | 746.67$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 706.9$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 5c | 696.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 67c | 646.61$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.88 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 642.94$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 26c | 534.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 524.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 36c | 523.59$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 73c | 519.93$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 43c | 465$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 441.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.09 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 425.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 390.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 49c | 387.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.61 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 385$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 357.29$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 38c | 323.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 322$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 68c | 313.76$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 300.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 47c | 296.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 267.66$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 73c | 265.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 257.97$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 43c | 243.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 72c | 234.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 233.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 56c | 232.31$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 21c | 231.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 69c | 228.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 210$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 22c | 208.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 66c | 182.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 32c | 182$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 72c | 179.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 177.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 174.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 64c | 171.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 171$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 17c | 170.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 75c | 161.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 41c | 151.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 138.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 43c | 138.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 131.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…00f1backed Yes | 68c | 131.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 125.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked No | 34c | 118.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 114.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 113.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed No | 26c | 112.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 112.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 46c | 111.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 72c | 111.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 75c | 111.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 63c | 111.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 37c | 109.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 67c | 106.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 104.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 102.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 74c | 97.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 66c | 96.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 67c | 94.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 92.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 78c | 87.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 76c | 85.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 28c | 85.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 77c | 84.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…314cbacked No | 40c | 75.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…73e0backed Yes | 20c | 75.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 76c | 72.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 71.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…b85cbacked No | 77c | 62.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 73c | 61.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 72c | 61.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 68c | 58.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…a72fbacked Yes | 42c | 58.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 62c | 57.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.