Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa17aeedaafc5423e4dcc36a59f896ca653630230d84ca80dee65a200438aa2f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 15c | 1,188$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.93 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 996.79$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 922.25$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 24c | 919.72$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.72 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 886.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 13c | 802.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 669.19$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 26c | 653.44$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.65 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 47c | 637.88$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.88 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 18c | 542.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 516.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.68 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 512$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 47c | 502.38$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.39 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 21c | 480.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.2 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 74c | 476.66$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 55c | 438.1$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 431.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 39c | 406.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.08 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 64c | 402.46$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.75 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 400$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.78 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 17c | 382.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 382.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.11 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 374.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.17 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 370.12$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 368.46$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.38 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 366.5$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 78c | 359.8$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.42 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 9c | 356.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 69c | 334.65$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 18c | 311.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 288.68$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.45 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 267.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 80c | 265.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 44c | 259.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 249.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 245.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 62c | 240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed No | 61c | 222.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 62c | 214.11$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 17c | 203.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 193.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 185$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 40c | 181$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 170.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 78c | 166.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 11c | 158.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 152.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 20c | 138.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 135.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 62c | 131.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 73c | 117.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 78c | 115.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 17c | 114.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 59c | 112.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 74c | 100.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 16c | 99.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 26c | 96.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 91.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 89.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed No | 58c | 85.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked Yes | 77c | 83.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 14c | 80.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 17c | 80.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 80.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 32c | 78.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 40c | 77.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 76.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 72.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…5dd7backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 43c | 68.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 31c | 64.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 58.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 58.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 27c | 57.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed Yes | 33c | 52.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 46c | 49.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 40c | 45.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 43c | 44.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…db33backed Yes | 26c | 42.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 42c | 41.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.