Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24ca8c20917ec69d6be4ef25ae9d459b0216218d8943de24c127378738c1b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 40c | 1,253$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 1,029$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 865.77$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 671.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 654.4$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 17c | 559.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 499.04$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 48c | 477.89$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.42 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 448.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 42c | 444.52$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 36c | 423.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 407.5$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 400.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 366.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 57c | 365.9$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 351.17$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 323.09$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 320.23$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 301.3$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 25c | 288.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 276$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 47c | 273.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked No | 71c | 247.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 220.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 37c | 199.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 195.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 195.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 29c | 191.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 53c | 188.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 47c | 181.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 177.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed Yes | 47c | 176.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 158.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 63c | 158.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 143.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 71c | 140.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 31c | 136.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 133$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 56c | 131.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 124.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 31c | 120.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 66c | 116.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 10c | 116.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 112.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked No | 74c | 111.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 40c | 110.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 45c | 106.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 37c | 105.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 20c | 104.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 25c | 100.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 41c | 100.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 44c | 99.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 98.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 75c | 96.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 69c | 93.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 86.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 86.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 37c | 84.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed No | 61c | 82.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 80.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 20c | 79.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 78.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 78.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 77.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 31c | 75.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 40c | 73.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 72.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 43c | 70.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 70.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked No | 79c | 70.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 66.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 65.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed No | 77c | 64.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 63.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 53c | 63.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…e373backed Yes | 45c | 61.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 61.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 29c | 60.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 60.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.