Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46bbec761826a35f191373a284d9e31da58461f5b0e2a86f7e94de2c47e79b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 76c | 1,028$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.27 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 755.96$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 733.66$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 534.03$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 21c | 500.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 30c | 500.39$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 428.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 399.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 355.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 299.03$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 37c | 291.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 31c | 269.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 37c | 235.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 21c | 234.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 233.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 213.45$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 28c | 210.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 30c | 201.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 199.53$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 183.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 178.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 65c | 175.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 174.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 174.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 162.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 79c | 145.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 76c | 135.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed No | 78c | 135.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 121.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 19c | 120.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 30c | 114.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 110.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 23c | 109.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 25c | 109.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 108.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked No | 74c | 98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 27c | 87.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 75.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 74.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 66.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 80c | 61.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 34c | 58.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 50.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 49.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 46.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked No | 71c | 46.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 41.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…5dd7backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 68c | 39.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 39.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…db33backed Yes | 31c | 38.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 37.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 34.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 33.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 25.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 19.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.