Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad1ec51a6f12dc99c44f12195967a10db4b066076ddbdee296912ddf39b663c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 73c | 799.99$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 20c | 646.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.31 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 486.03$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 405.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 357.29$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 339.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 39c | 309.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…717bbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 77cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 80c | 235.97$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 22c | 229.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 28c | 226.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 226.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 223$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 217.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.51 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 215.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 62c | 211.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 32c | 199.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 186.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 37c | 174.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 74c | 173.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 171.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 168.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 162.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 159.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 158.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 155.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 78c | 140.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 74c | 127.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 61c | 126.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 23c | 120.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 76c | 117.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 14c | 110.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 108.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 45c | 106.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 43c | 100.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 20c | 96.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 19c | 89.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 49c | 85.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 25c | 85.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 83.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 81.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 72c | 81.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 72c | 77.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 53c | 72.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 35c | 72.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 17c | 71.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 19c | 69.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 21c | 67.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 36c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 20c | 64.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 64.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4a…5800backed No | 36c | 64.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 37c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 62.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 52c | 62.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 28c | 61.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 62c | 61.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 60.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 24c | 57.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 43c | 54.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 79c | 53.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 75c | 52.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 51.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 24c | 51.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 23c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 22c | 47.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 74c | 47.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 46.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 46.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 50c | 44.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 67c | 43.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 29c | 42.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 69c | 40.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 37c | 40.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed Yes | 74c | 37.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.