TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,760 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes73c799.99$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes20c646.55$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.3121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c486.03$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.563,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No30c405.22$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.582,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c357.29$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c339.84$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.754,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No39c309.91$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1224262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x675b…717bbacked No80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick77cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No80c235.97$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.31,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No22c229.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.861820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No28c226.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes24c226.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.045,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c223$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.465,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes22c217.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.511,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No30c215.52$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6677151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No62c211.84$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3226265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No32c199.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.828244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c186.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.328,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No37c174.44$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes74c173.91$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c171.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes20c168.78$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.611,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No63c162.84$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3127461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes20c159.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.553,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c158.51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No12c155.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.764,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No78c140.19$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9945253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes74c127.12$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5339346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes61c126.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.535349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No23c120.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2949646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Yes76c117.94$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.357846.2%36 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No14c110.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.962,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes78c110$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.73560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c108.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.356,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No45c106.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5917457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be7…ad70backed Yes43c100.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.913411.9%16 W · 118 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes17c99.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.999548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes15c99.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9915915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes20c96.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8316440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No19c89.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8420341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes49c85.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2225536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes25c85.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0918222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No43c83.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes21c81.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5ec…5946backed No72c81.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.364035%14 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2817947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c79$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.499,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes72c77.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2210463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011519.1%22 W · 93 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.484,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes53c72.62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9253258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No35c72.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2753951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No17c71.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes71c70.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1418650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2629835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes19c69.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4216552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes21c67.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.296527.7%18 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No36c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6637465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes20c64.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.747655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes20c64.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a4a…5800backed No36c64.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes31c64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.298247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed No37c63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2712052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes59c62.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.893,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No52c62.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes80c62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.433561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed Yes28c61.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1624546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…5961backed Yes62c61.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.117361.6%45 W · 28 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes55c60.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c58.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No24c57.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes41c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.266619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.217956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes43c54.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2111947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes79c53.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1924066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes51c53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.967642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes75c52.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c51.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.816,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No24c51.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3015345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.516936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3015334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617a…8c79backed No23c49.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.494360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes22c47.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9515868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes74c47.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.158476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes71c46.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.572,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes58c46.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.31,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed No50c44.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.315538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes67c43.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.368356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes29c42.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9655954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes69c40.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa589…9ec9backed Yes37c40.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+30.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No79c37.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3b…7bb2backed Yes74c37.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.832166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No33c36.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0823547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.