TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,914 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes22c4,843$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.264712.8%6 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x632e…6a56backed Yes1c3,909$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No80c963.12$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.075752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c726.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.22,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No78c628.45$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.455054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No79c491.57$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0835429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c482.15$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes7c419.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9439346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes39c373.47$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c362.37$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c326.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.122,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes10c249.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes14c213.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9611612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c211.76$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.468,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2261820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c199.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c196.66$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.613,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No62c170$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes36c164$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes15c163.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes13c163.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.831,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes22c142.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3228244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes21c133.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.942313%3 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes24c131.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes18c126.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c121.27$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.034,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes33c120.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.181,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes25c115$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.351,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c110.69$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.475,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes34c106.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.299548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes12c105.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.931,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes34c101.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5314151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c100.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.929,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa254…8d57backed Yes40c97.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes11c95.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No64c93.75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7528666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed Yes17c92.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes12c92.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.845538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c92$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.89,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No56c90.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No76c86.61$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1524262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No63c82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.348964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No61c80.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7327461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes39c80.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.461,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes35c77.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.641,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4a…5800backed Yes23c70.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes37c67.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes19c67.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.044334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.162,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.624,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No63c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5717553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1f…d278backed Yes39c59.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.291421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c57.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.453,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c56.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No62c55.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2716272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0515…f02bbacked Yes33c54.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.682142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No55c51.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.518945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…04c2backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55939%23 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes44c49.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0516936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes24c47.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3653951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No63c47.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6246457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes36c44.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes36c40.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.682,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes39c39.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.443,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6283…3e7abacked Yes39c33.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.142231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked Yes30c33.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.095729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No61c32.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4541966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes35c30.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.797655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No56c30.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes41c30.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.588356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes38c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.193734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x35b6…caadbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.021,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No56c26.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6317457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked No60c25.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.328067.5%54 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes55c24.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.699960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No58c23.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No80c23.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked No68c23.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5216950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No66c21.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.231,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No61c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1949646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No66c19.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.729852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c17.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.794,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dd…847fbacked No67c16.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No72c16.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.619965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c16.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.982,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c16.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0916…9ad0backed No79c16.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.411770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.