Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46495362e3ab53cf014ab6050bdb4a37d3a53971097b00721b47631900b44f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,574$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,231$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,106$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 731.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 75c | 603.55$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 405.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 4c | 367.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 11c | 366.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 363.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 36c | 281.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 266.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…2ac1backed Yes | 11c | 249.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 228$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 30c | 174$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 9c | 126.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 120.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 25c | 119.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…267dbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 17c | 102.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 25c | 98.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 19c | 89.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 13c | 80.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 64.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 75c | 63.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 38c | 56.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 50.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 21c | 49.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 47.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 21c | 46.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 45.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…cf00backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 37.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 80c | 35.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.