Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7a9b3b080866801e5b0cd726536af0d64f4d16f9eba50ba91a059303c61447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 1,570$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.75 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,159$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…087fbacked No | 75c | 918.12$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 27c | 840.18$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 727.73$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 13c | 678.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 674.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 624.68$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 5c | 578.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 543.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 46c | 463.82$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 449.82$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 22c | 419.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 78c | 383.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 28c | 374.08$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 45c | 373.58$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.95 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 373.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 361.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 44c | 332.38$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 75c | 331.42$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 330.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 312.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 284.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 20c | 265.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…e611backed No | 74c | 250$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 246.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 241.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 12c | 240.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 239.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 233.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 18c | 226.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…1ef1backed No | 71c | 219.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 21c | 219.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 16c | 210.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 208.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 201.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e72cbacked Yes | 17c | 199.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 198.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 22c | 198.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 188.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 187.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 79c | 186.93$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 25c | 179.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 170.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 167.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 76c | 162.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 152.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 73c | 151.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 21c | 151.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 42c | 145.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 143.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 143$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 136.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 30c | 135.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…1710backed Yes | 18c | 132.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 15c | 129.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 24c | 127.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 74c | 126.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 10c | 125.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 120.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 108.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked No | 70c | 107.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 101.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 70c | 100.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 98.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 29c | 89.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 23c | 86.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 83.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 82.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 44c | 82.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 26c | 80.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…4501backed Yes | 22c | 77.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…33abbacked Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 71.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 24c | 70.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 23c | 70.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 61.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 34c | 59.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 23c | 59.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 27c | 52.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…d736backed Yes | 43c | 52.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 51.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 75c | 51.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.