Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163a6bd4660e841747157f9ca5ea880feaeefd1be0775345ebe706a4a7d7cf81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 1,195$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.1 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 55c | 652.34$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.27 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 604.84$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 42c | 471.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.44 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 458$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 51c | 425.57$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.76 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 409.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 60c | 394.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.64 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 36c | 390.08$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.22 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 56c | 375.41$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 357$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 344$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 340$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 30c | 339.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 338.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 252.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 252.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 80c | 250.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 64c | 234.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 69c | 224.47$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 219.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 219.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 217.62$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 22c | 216.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 214.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 29c | 211.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 206.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 57c | 196.45$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 195.52$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…c586backed No | 49c | 190.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 190.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 44c | 176.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 14c | 154.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 71c | 150.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 44c | 148.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 142.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…c6cabacked No | 24c | 139.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 34c | 139.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 139.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 30c | 135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 129.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 128.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 127.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 47c | 126.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 117.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 46c | 115.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 111.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 106.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 30c | 105.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…649cbacked Yes | 48c | 104.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 104.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 53c | 102.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 98.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 54c | 89.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 89.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 48c | 84.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 83.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 65c | 83.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 65c | 75.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 53c | 75.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 40c | 73.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 58c | 72.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68b2…fb81backed No | 32c | 70.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 30c | 68.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 70c | 68.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 29c | 68.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 60c | 66.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 22c | 65.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 61c | 62.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 61.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 69c | 57.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 56c | 52.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 69c | 52.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 55c | 49.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 47.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 47.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 43.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 71c | 40.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.