Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe93567e40b8343efe7691e0adade244943b5b293fba1d5f110b1f1ee1e34d440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 4c | 1,470$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 963.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 726.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 2c | 679.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 655.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 569.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 19c | 529.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 513.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 4c | 504.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 471$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 459.14$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 15c | 450$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 46c | 432.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 7c | 421.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 8c | 403.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…3c4cbacked Yes | 30c | 338.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 9c | 329.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 326.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 321.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 299.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 293.54$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 33c | 286.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 16c | 273.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 254.29$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 251.31$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 15c | 224.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 208.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 18c | 199.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 20c | 193.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…649cbacked Yes | 28c | 181.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 150.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 148.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 146.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 143.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 25c | 132.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 127.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 74c | 120.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 22c | 117.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 71c | 116.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 113.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 27c | 112.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 98.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 74c | 92.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 90.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 73c | 89.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 88.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed Yes | 25c | 84.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 83.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 72c | 82.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 30c | 82.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 66c | 75.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 74c | 72.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 71.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 68.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 37c | 67.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 69c | 64.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 77c | 64.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…660bbacked Yes | 31c | 62.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 23c | 57.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 35c | 50.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…5617backed Yes | 40c | 49.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 45.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 43.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 28c | 41.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 41.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 30.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 72c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.