Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f3b5d940d37827992623b9838d1d85e80ab00523cc00bbeb1aae43e77e14fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 41c | 2,576$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.18 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 1,455$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 1,195$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 61c | 967.4$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.43 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 847$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 836.48$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 827.23$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 814.65$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 39c | 752.13$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 747.33$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 48c | 666.64$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.92 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 659.98$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 37c | 572.26$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.29 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 49c | 542.89$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.71 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 498$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 484$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.56 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 47c | 467.6$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.81 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 462.51$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 61c | 430.06$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 46c | 427.26$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 80c | 414.01$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…d45abacked Yes | 73c | 403.15$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 392.54$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 371.89$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.04 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 354.51$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 351.6$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 350$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 343$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 36c | 316.19$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 299.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 291.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 42c | 284.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 276.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 268.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.34 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 262.25$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 39c | 259.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 257.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 247.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked No | 58c | 208.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 46c | 205.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 34c | 202.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 51c | 197.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 37c | 190.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 53c | 186.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 185.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 178$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 44c | 177.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 167.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 159.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 34c | 141.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 139.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 135$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 134$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…fce2backed Yes | 37c | 130.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 65c | 128.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 57c | 126.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 32c | 122.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 121.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 115.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 111.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 62c | 102.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 43c | 101.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 33c | 100.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…4632backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…e611backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 36c | 98.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 52c | 98.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 98.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 53c | 94.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 42c | 92.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 47c | 89.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…e209backed Yes | 66c | 89.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 87.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 51c | 87.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed Yes | 46c | 86.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 60c | 82.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 81.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…d5ebbacked Yes | 53c | 80.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 46c | 76.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 55c | 74.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 68.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 67.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 38c | 67.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 66.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 62c | 64.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 64.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 46c | 62.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 62.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 46c | 61.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.