Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3156492d574b1cdc618eaae69a40ccbb86b1483437a255599072cdbcea028c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 1,512$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 10c | 870.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 5c | 700.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 3c | 592.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 4c | 476.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 3c | 449.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 406.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 347.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 74c | 268.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed Yes | 16c | 228$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 8c | 220.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 214.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 196.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 170.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 147.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 130.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 95.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 86.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 16c | 84.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 67.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 58.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 79c | 56.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 27c | 54.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 75c | 45.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed No | 70c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 69c | 20.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.