Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493d742a4dce403e7f81c7c6f6410e688fa4f929703ec928e481a78741514f61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 43c | 2,622$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.09 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 1,466$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 41c | 1,381$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.85 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 1,224$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,044$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.4 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 1,033$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.13 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 920$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 886.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 42c | 750.15$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 49c | 721.51$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.23 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 43c | 719.65$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.89 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 651.21$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.96 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 647.75$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 50c | 610$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 559.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…fce2backed Yes | 45c | 545.08$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 21c | 544.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 520.05$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 483.51$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.66 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 447.96$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.29 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…1ddfbacked No | 57c | 430$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 52c | 409.77$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 358.3$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.73 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 10c | 316.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…e786backed Yes | 4c | 310.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 305.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 291$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 288.47$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 285.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 40c | 285.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 45c | 263.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 64c | 244.3$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 243.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 25c | 241.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 237.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 46c | 217.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 212.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 212$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 21c | 208.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 205$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 202.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 45c | 189.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 47c | 184.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 180.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 44c | 175.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked Yes | 40c | 174$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 23c | 172.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 161.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 60c | 160.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 148$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 44c | 147.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 39c | 147.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 147.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 42c | 145.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 129.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 58c | 128.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 49c | 128.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 125.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 125.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 59c | 122.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 116.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 115.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 65c | 113.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked Yes | 54c | 112.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 40c | 109.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 65c | 106.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 105.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 58c | 104.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 101.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 95.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 58c | 91.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 68c | 89.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 23c | 84.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…8f0cbacked No | 49c | 82.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 53c | 80.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…3189backed Yes | 38c | 79.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 38c | 78.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 70.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…6f33backed No | 62c | 70.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 45c | 68.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 66.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 65.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 24c | 64.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 44c | 64.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 63.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.