Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c08b3913a17ddb1305a5cb92b09dd93c269772b54c665e10d2d834b52157133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 3,306$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 53c | 979.98$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 943.92$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 877.18$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.55 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 52c | 767.89$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.23 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 693.3$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 17c | 622.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.92 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 43c | 587$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.89 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 66c | 559.98$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 79c | 510.55$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 21c | 472.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 461.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 407.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.9 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 359.38$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.22 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 63c | 356.91$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 68c | 355.92$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 287.79$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 57c | 271.61$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 261.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 58c | 257.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 43c | 236.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 27c | 230.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 229.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 71c | 218.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 71c | 214.29$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 74c | 211.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 210.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 69c | 199.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 56c | 177.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 176$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 15c | 170.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 66c | 169.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 152.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 53c | 151.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 148.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed No | 34c | 148.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 68c | 148.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 27c | 145.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 65c | 142.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 40c | 142.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 68c | 140.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 45c | 138.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 29c | 133.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked No | 26c | 132.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 74c | 132.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x911c…87bcbacked No | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 61c | 128.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 62c | 128.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 50c | 119.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 50c | 113.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 67c | 113.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 112.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 21c | 108$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked No | 29c | 107.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…35abbacked Yes | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…e1f3backed Yes | 74c | 101.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…c5dbbacked Yes | 70c | 100.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 71c | 98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 96.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…8d48backed Yes | 14c | 91.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 51c | 91.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 74c | 90.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 85.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 74.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 41c | 72.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 71.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 67c | 70.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 70.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…02d4backed No | 35c | 70.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 37c | 69.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 69.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 69.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes | 67c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 25c | 63.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 40c | 61.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 61.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 45c | 60.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…f127backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…802bbacked No | 73c | 59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 58.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 35c | 57.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked No | 31c | 57.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 30c | 55.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 59c | 55.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 24c | 54.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 52.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.