Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c3526dee29dff708a3fca533f29029a974d489752bcf40aceb5f992ab03866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 4c | 1,998$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 19c | 1,213$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.77 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 15c | 899.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 554.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 515.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 504.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 484.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 21c | 472.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 369.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 11c | 339.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 257.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked Yes | 11c | 251.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 25c | 203.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 12c | 184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 7c | 182.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 19c | 142.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 75c | 132.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 129.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 128.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 21c | 118.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 118.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 12c | 114.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 14c | 105.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…6119backed No | 75c | 105.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 29c | 104.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 32c | 101.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 93.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 89.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 15c | 87.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 87.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 81.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 32c | 79.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 24c | 79.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 67.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 63.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 59.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 55.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…00f1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 43.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f8…5508backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…a20fbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf91…eb36backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 38.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 75c | 34.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 33.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…118dbacked No | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 32.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 31.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 58c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 75c | 21.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…1b42backed No | 77c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 77c | 17.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 73c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…81dcbacked No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.