Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5622edf1195a3de718602dd6c2fd52e37b82eeeb1050c17ea4acd9e1724616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 31c | 1,472$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.01 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,175$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 1c | 910.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 875.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 735.55$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 681.94$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 7c | 667.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed Yes | 23c | 558.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 522.28$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 10c | 521.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 499.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 68c | 499.66$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 453.7$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 16c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 369.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 54c | 335.71$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 59c | 291.17$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 63c | 270.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 268$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 258.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 27c | 185.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 41c | 169.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 30c | 160$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 34c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 147.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 24c | 145$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 130.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 121.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 105.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…2d3dbacked Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 33c | 101.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…91cebacked Yes | 26c | 100.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 36c | 96.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 29c | 93.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 87.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 80.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 62c | 78.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 73.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 73.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 17c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 57c | 71.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 69.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 40c | 64.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…59dabacked Yes | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 54.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 53.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 52.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 52.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…85b4backed Yes | 41c | 41.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 41c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 40.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 40.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 33.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 32.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 32.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 31.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 29.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 28.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 28.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 68c | 27.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…2427backed Yes | 41c | 26.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 25.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 23.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 61c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 63c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.