NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb43eb5ba25140eb8664e359e124c2e599006054b2b5468d7375fd2ea5323356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa906…bfbcbacked No | 29c | 6,463$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…13acbacked Yes | 20c | 5,402$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,296.17 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 29c | 4,669$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,308.13 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 3,947$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.98 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 3,120$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked No | 15c | 2,556$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.26 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 2c | 2,433$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 1,841$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.73 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 3c | 1,794$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 24c | 1,600$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 1,241$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 7c | 1,240$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,213$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.68 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,205$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 20c | 1,154$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.22 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 1,099$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.11 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 13c | 946.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 3c | 946.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…55b8backed Yes | 6c | 870.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 37c | 844.5$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.49 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 799.99$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.39 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Yes | 28c | 723.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 681.99$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.68 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 611.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.08 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 610$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.41 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 603.37$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 550.41$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.14 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 4c | 515.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ab0bbacked Yes | 8c | 497.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.39 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 57c | 494.28$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 48c | 458.47$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 442.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.82 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…4a0ebacked No | 73c | 410.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…f4fabacked Yes | 7c | 385.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,334.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Yes | 4c | 357.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.45 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 7c | 351.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 6c | 333.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.66 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed Yes | 74c | 316.05$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 304.49$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 11c | 299.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 220 | 51.8%114 W · 106 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 280.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.06 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…a9dbbacked Yes | 7c | 274.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +667.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 271.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 60c | 260.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 57c | 246.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…5f05backed Yes | 17c | 241.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 28c | 241.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 237.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 64c | 230$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Yes | 8c | 229.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 30c | 226.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 5c | 223.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 40c | 219.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 218.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 6c | 213.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa5…35c6backed No | 72c | 208.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 10c | 201.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 196.63$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked No | 74c | 186.74$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 182$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 172$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 27c | 170.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 168.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ba…60fabacked Yes | 39c | 165.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 165.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 35c | 154.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 66c | 154.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 18c | 150.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 148.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 15c | 144$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed No | 47c | 140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 18c | 135$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…7cd9backed Yes | 15c | 130.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 80c | 127.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +324.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…6e94backed Yes | 32c | 125.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 123.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…45fbbacked Yes | 28c | 119.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 107.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 32c | 104$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 14c | 102.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +681.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 12c | 94.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 14c | 87.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 26c | 86.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed Yes | 35c | 85.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 25c | 83.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 82.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 79c | 80.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?this page
- Will LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?No won
- Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?No won
- Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?No won
- Will LeBron's next contract average over $50M per year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.