TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa906…bfbcbacked No29c6,463$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Yes20c5,402$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,296.174742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes29c4,669$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.1342640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No14c3,947$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.981,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c3,120$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf841…b2ebbacked No15c2,556$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.2614049.3%69 W · 71 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No2c2,433$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c1,841$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.7325045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No3c1,794$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81372.7%1 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes24c1,600$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.83633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed Yes7c1,250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.611850%9 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+96.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No40c1,241$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.381957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No7c1,240$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.952259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes22c1,213$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.684431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c1,205$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes20c1,154$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.228856.8%50 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c1,099$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.111764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes13c946.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.791838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No3c946.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa97…55b8backed Yes6c870.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.24911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+93%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No37c844.5$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4965762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c799.99$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.3915219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Yes28c723.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+107.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c681.99$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.683056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c611.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.08969.4%9 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No44c610$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.413447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No69c603.37$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.871241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No47c550.41$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1426048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed No4c515.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146e…ab0bbacked Yes8c497.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.391921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+265.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes57c494.28$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No48c458.47$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.26955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+81.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c442.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.82844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a82…4a0ebacked No73c410.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.262934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f66…f4fabacked Yes7c385.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,334.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes4c357.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.4518031.7%57 W · 123 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes7c351.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+181.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes6c333.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.6618246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed Yes74c316.05$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.331566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes58c304.49$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.533342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No11c299.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.222051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes16c280.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0615010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7d…a9dbbacked Yes7c274.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+667.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes35c271.98$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.54862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No60c260.56$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.29955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No57c246.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.363525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+115.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a2…5f05backed Yes17c241.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+187.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes28c241.58$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No52c237.29$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.251369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No64c230$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Yes8c229.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7336350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes30c226.94$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.397852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x582f…9cd5backed Yes5c223.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.983342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes40c219.22$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4721443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No43c218.49$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.221275%9 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No6c213.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfa5…35c6backed No72c208.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes10c201.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+67.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No79c196.63$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.791471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae1…d8abbacked No74c186.74$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9240%0 W · 4 L-2.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes56c182$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.532540%10 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c172$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.562462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes27c170.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+64.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No64c168.09$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.351050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ba…60fabacked Yes39c165.58$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.834100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+121.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes20c165.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.113240.2%53 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No35c154.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.129956.6%56 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No66c154.03$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes18c150.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+97.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc999…ca09backed Yes13c150$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+201.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-90.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes10c150$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+400%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c148.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.821947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes15c144$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.42161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+40.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed No47c140$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes18c135$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.111145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036d…7cd9backed Yes15c130.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.72850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No80c127.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.281040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+324.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3265…6e94backed Yes32c125.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c123.94$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.982466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4503…45fbbacked Yes28c119.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+81.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.111040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No53c107.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes32c104$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes14c102.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No41c102$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.652347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…cc22backed Yes13c99.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+681.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No12c94.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.981258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c90$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.492657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes14c87.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.311163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick36cpaid+94.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5141…7346backed Yes26c86.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+65.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed7d…5852backed Yes35c85.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.895637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes25c83.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.475330.2%16 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No56c82.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.931861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No79c80.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.548652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.