NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfec8ef9a380b659f166b639e848a382740abbfdc492b7fef077506a10be99b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 17c | 2,150$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.86 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 1c | 2,010$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 26c | 1,967$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 6c | 1,203$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,190$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…9f39backed Yes | 47c | 1,101$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 906.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…55b8backed Yes | 5c | 885.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Yes | 8c | 876.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 699.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.3 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 41c | 555$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…bfbcbacked Yes | 21c | 475.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 471.91$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 389.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf36…8eadbacked Yes | 6c | 326$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 79c | 285$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 278.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes | 8c | 272.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 271.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 267$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 11c | 260.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 253.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 237.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed Yes | 10c | 229.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 221.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 80c | 193$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 181.03$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ab0bbacked Yes | 11c | 175.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…710bbacked Yes | 8c | 175.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 23c | 169.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 164.51$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 8c | 153.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 18c | 135.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…9cb6backed Yes | 22c | 133.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 131.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 13c | 118.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…3ca2backed Yes | 18c | 112.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 14c | 88.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 82.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 18c | 73.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 70.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…9b4dbacked Yes | 21c | 60.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 71c | 54.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed Yes | 33c | 51.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 22c | 49.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 48.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked No | 70c | 47.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 66c | 46.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed No | 52c | 45.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…4853backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…1ac3backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 77c | 24.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 66c | 24.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…5f55backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 73c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?this page
- Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?No won
- Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?No won
- Will LeBron's next contract average over $50M per year?No won
- Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.