Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7d4376c9125f88ba6f478741ecb6e50148ae6cb62990164afff8993c855ded9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 4,585$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 2c | 3,563$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 3,230$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.56 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 2,065$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 52c | 2,020$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 1,523$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,396$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 73c | 1,258$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.94 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,218$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.29 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 7c | 1,175$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,070$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.18 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,031$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 1,031$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.26 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 40c | 827.71$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.33 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 815.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 55c | 758.13$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.72 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 40c | 706.44$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.13 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 540.49$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 456.17$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 42c | 452.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 52c | 450.34$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.93 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 36c | 416.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 19c | 412.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 408.06$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 54c | 385.75$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 71c | 383.1$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 379$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 55c | 366.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.34 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…00f1backed Yes | 69c | 349.98$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 339.08$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 26c | 323.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.97 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 60c | 295.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 32c | 294.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 290.4$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 289.37$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 56c | 276.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 276.08$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 40c | 274.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 272.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked No | 35c | 269.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 44c | 262.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 260.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 56c | 256$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 33c | 252.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.55 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 32c | 218.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 24c | 211.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 10c | 206$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 200.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 194.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4f…09b9backed Yes | 26c | 183.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 181.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 56c | 170.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 162.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 30c | 153.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 149.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 147.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 59c | 146.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 80c | 142.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 45c | 141.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked No | 71c | 138.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 136.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 131$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 129$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 125.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 29c | 121.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 51c | 117.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 114.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 26c | 113.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 29c | 112.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 36c | 111.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 110.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 109.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 60c | 108.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 47c | 95.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 34c | 92.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 68c | 91.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…b7b5backed Yes | 30c | 86.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 31c | 85.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 85.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 13c | 83.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 71c | 82.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 46c | 81.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 76c | 81.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.