Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc5bfeeb5721dcd6588865587a09b9a03ff816aa095fa46d092614a15d654054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd20a…688dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,929$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,277$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,114$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 890.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed Yes | 14c | 727.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 13c | 708.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 3c | 699.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 4c | 557.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 426.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 414.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 409.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 18c | 399.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 7c | 340$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 312.75$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 22c | 300.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 17c | 290.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 289.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 279.24$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 243.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 9c | 205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 19c | 199.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 171.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 166.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…8294backed Yes | 8c | 162.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 20c | 144.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 76c | 142.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 12c | 134.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 131.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 115.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…779cbacked Yes | 16c | 111.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 19c | 102.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…99f8backed Yes | 21c | 95.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…73e0backed Yes | 13c | 90.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 89.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 16c | 86.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 73.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 22c | 59.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 50.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…59dabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 80c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 80c | 42.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed Yes | 24c | 41.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 69c | 31.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…a5fcbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 77c | 27.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…81dcbacked No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.