Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd234f39ad8dcac7819fb7badab7b28a953e57df2113f6082e773b3718ee32b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd20a…688dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,171$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 1,958$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 1,482$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,299$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.17 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 2c | 1,204$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 30c | 999.98$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 22c | 992.43$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.43 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 27c | 742.34$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 44c | 685.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 38c | 682.88$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.1 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 681.97$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.97 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 60c | 531.61$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.67 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 36c | 472.75$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 460.75$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 4c | 429.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 23c | 392.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 370.68$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 367$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 345.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 57c | 333.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 318.34$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 315.25$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 42c | 301.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 48c | 300.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 53c | 258.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be4…48d3backed Yes | 39c | 254.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 251$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 10c | 241.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 41c | 233.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 224.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 51c | 208.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 201.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 41c | 196.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 34c | 177.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 150.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 149.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 22c | 148.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 143.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 57c | 142.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 34c | 139.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 31c | 138.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 129.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 31c | 122.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 122.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 118.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…85b4backed Yes | 38c | 114.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 30c | 114.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 61c | 113.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 26c | 110.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 109.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 108.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 43c | 106.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 59c | 104.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 34c | 103.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…99f8backed Yes | 39c | 96.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 40c | 91.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 61c | 89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 42c | 85.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 63c | 83.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 81.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 79.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 56c | 76.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 48c | 74.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 40c | 69.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 30c | 66.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 42c | 61.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 61.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 29c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 59.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…3db1backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 30c | 53.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…128cbacked Yes | 56c | 53.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 50.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.