Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abe8fb4b613601eefcb6b6d755c863ce3a456a722c720b42cdc5689c1b1d1d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 25c | 1,447$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.11 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 1,266$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 67c | 1,153$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.1 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,046$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.31 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 644.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 639.32$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 28c | 530.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 506.47$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 402$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 387.81$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 25c | 386.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 26c | 380.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 23c | 367$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 50c | 358.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 30c | 335.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 330.08$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 315.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 34c | 301.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 25c | 294.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 266.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 76c | 241.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 16c | 240.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 28c | 221.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 210.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 26c | 198.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 70c | 197.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 194.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 41c | 184.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 183.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 179.21$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 27c | 168.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 163.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 163.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 159.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 62c | 158.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 69c | 157.88$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 150.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 36c | 147.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 18c | 147.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 22c | 137.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 59c | 132.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 131.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 65c | 125.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb739…a47bbacked No | 68c | 117.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 114.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 75c | 113.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 109.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 18c | 107.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 14c | 107.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 107.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 41c | 103.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 99.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 87.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 42c | 81.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 31c | 77.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…5dd7backed Yes | 40c | 76.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 72.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 71.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 74c | 69.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 67.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 23c | 66.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 19c | 60.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 25c | 60.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…218abacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 59.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 57.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 56.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 54.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…f83bbacked Yes | 40c | 41.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.