Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed323850a318eef3b6c2a8f74b4a5e90f8bd543eba5b888197edd83374823bc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 13,269$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 3,654$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.14 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 23c | 3,392$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.04 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 6c | 3,065$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,047$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.79 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 1,609$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,564$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 10c | 1,406$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 13c | 1,303$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 1,277$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,158$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,022$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 891.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 10c | 885.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 789.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 14c | 787.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 744.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 732.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 12c | 671.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 656.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 653.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 7c | 621.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 612.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 11c | 604.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 580.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 2c | 570.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 550.77$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 13c | 542.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 5c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 10c | 498.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 10c | 490.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 12c | 478.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 7c | 432$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 29c | 407.87$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 9c | 400.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 6c | 383.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 364.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 7c | 360.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 10c | 355.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 16c | 319.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 8c | 304.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 5c | 263.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 15c | 250.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 12c | 222.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 221.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 8c | 212.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 10c | 212.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 11c | 208.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…f7f3backed Yes | 8c | 202.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 7c | 201.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 5c | 200.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 12c | 189.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 183.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 8c | 178.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 14c | 177.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 15c | 167.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 158$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 150.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 139.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 72c | 130.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 130.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 13c | 124.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…5e93backed Yes | 29c | 124.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 14c | 120.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 28c | 112.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 30c | 112$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 11c | 107.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 12c | 103.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 101.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…b502backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 99.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 16c | 97.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 20c | 94.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 15c | 77.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 16c | 75.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 26c | 63.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 71c | 45.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 44.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 37.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 56c | 26.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.