Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a2c0f5d2c4bdd4d46554b5ce0c6cec2dc5d0d643229afe227d9cc48ee48f77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 66c | 1,758$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.1 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 1,721$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 9c | 1,156$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 8c | 1,019$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…66d8backed No | 19c | 952.62$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 929.66$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.59 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 809.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 39c | 791.67$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.98 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 762.12$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 79c | 581.07$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 60c | 500$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.09 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 439.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 23c | 421.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.32 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 69c | 400.67$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 49c | 389.58$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 389.14$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 40c | 378.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 352.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 45c | 350.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.63 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed Yes | 27c | 324.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 311.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.74 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 300$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 282.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 280.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 37c | 270.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 28c | 270$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 269.77$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 251.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 242$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 44c | 240.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 54c | 238$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 231.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 222.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 216.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 64c | 212.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 210$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 209.31$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 205.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 50c | 186.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 44c | 185.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…9251backed No | 59c | 176.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 64c | 175.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 170.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 46c | 162.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 59c | 153.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 152.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 71c | 149.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 147$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 75c | 138.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 137.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 42c | 136.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…16d1backed Yes | 64c | 135.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 64c | 135.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 20c | 134.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 38c | 131.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 8c | 120.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 36c | 120.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 62c | 116.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 113.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 29c | 109.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 108.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…9ebebacked Yes | 73c | 108.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 104$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 103.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 45c | 101.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 46c | 100.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 100.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 14c | 99.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 95.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…128cbacked No | 54c | 92.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed Yes | 33c | 89.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 45c | 88.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 49c | 86.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 49c | 84.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 84.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 84.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 35c | 78.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 77.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed No | 22c | 75.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 27c | 72.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 41c | 72.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 61c | 72.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 70.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 39c | 69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 43c | 67.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 65.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.