Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a294aa34750490795a3e6bba051bcfae954212461dd241f87cfae8005d4d25b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 12c | 2,770$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.03 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,939$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.53 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 7c | 1,412$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 14c | 1,011$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,002$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 8c | 980.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 8c | 807.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 800$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 789.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 12c | 684.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 9c | 673.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 15c | 599$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 17c | 544.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 12c | 389.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 382.88$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 382.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 324.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 299.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 14c | 298.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 270$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 262.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 13c | 259.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 78c | 257.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 14c | 253.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 252.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 18c | 241.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 9c | 223.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 15c | 216.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…1ee6backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 9c | 194.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 192.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 32c | 179.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 169.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 78c | 162.34$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 15c | 161.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 157.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 156.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 14c | 153.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 28c | 138.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 127.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 120.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 15c | 116.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 17c | 115.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 21c | 114.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 12c | 113.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…73e0backed Yes | 14c | 108.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 107.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 24c | 104.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 17c | 99.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…47c6backed Yes | 21c | 94.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +133%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 26c | 94.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 32c | 93.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 92.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 80c | 91.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 90.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 16c | 89.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 25c | 87.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 19c | 83.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…16d1backed Yes | 17c | 76.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 18c | 76.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 21c | 72.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 21c | 71.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 68.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 62.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 59.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…99f8backed Yes | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 53.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 80c | 52.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 46.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…f153backed No | 70c | 41.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…7ebabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 66c | 39.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…67eabacked Yes | 35c | 37.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.