Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54571cd5abee3b69bfdfd7a2e1adca90e285d25ae3ff953d9bcbbd160a8679c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 1,534$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 1,157$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.58 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 759.92$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 46c | 721$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 654.78$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 78c | 633.74$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 632.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 530.46$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 514.79$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 460.14$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 18c | 442.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 55c | 428.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.75 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 57c | 413.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.12 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 406.09$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 346$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 329.08$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 321.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 281.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 23c | 257.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 247.68$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 43c | 233.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 219.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 17c | 219.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 203.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 54c | 196.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 184.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 171.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 28c | 168.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 163.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 161.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 63c | 159.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 54c | 158.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 158.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 147.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 17c | 143.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 49c | 143.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 51c | 134.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 75c | 130.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 127.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 64c | 125.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 54c | 125.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 59c | 123$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 121$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 118.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 116.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 70c | 116.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 52c | 115.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 49c | 108.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 46c | 104.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 102.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 48c | 102.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 101.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 91.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 48c | 91.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 32c | 90.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 60c | 88.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 86.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 86.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 84.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 82.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 81.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 81.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 81.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 80.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 15c | 79.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 22c | 76.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 74.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 48c | 67.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…cc30backed Yes | 31c | 66.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 62c | 64.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 63.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 18c | 62.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 39c | 61.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 61.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 59c | 60.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 60.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.