TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd23f…94a1backed No66c1,534$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.322,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes43c1,157$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.581,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c759.92$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.854,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes46c721$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5825135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes43c654.78$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed No78c633.74$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.163240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c632.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.593,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c530.46$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.044,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c514.79$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.142,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes2c499.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes40c460.14$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes18c442.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.763444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No55c428.64$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.7553925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes57c413.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.126533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No64c406.09$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.641,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c346$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No59c329.08$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.54,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c321.43$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.148,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13826540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c281.25$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.153,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes23c257.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.139425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c247.68$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No43c233.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0215570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c219.91$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.156,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes17c219.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c203.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes54c196.58$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.152,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c184.45$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.945,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No65c171.31$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1892678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes28c168.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7212927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c163.31$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No63c161.84$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.492,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes63c159.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes54c158.83$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.32846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes43c158.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb84d…3307backed Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No61c147.39$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0839956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes17c143.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4642820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes49c143.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No51c134.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No75c130.33$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.016660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c130$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c127.03$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.872,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9281…60febacked Yes64c125.31$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes54c125.07$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4927335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.77234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes59c123$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.151,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No52c121$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No65c118.27$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.282,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No53c116.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No70c116.7$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0143959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed No52c115.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.194161%25 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes49c108.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4719541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No45c106$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3515966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes40c105$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes46c104.76$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1912450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No56c102.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.382,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes48c102.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6815040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c101.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.373,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.262528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.393,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No57c99.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c91.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.141,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes48c91.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.136927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.221,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes32c90.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3756322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No60c88.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.234761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No57c86.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3757150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c86.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.11,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes52c84.25$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.951,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes36c82.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.513,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c81.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes53c81.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c81.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.296,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No79c80.55$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.012,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes15c79.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes22c76.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.751,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No49c74.29$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9983459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No75c72$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.415950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes30c69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6954735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes48c67.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.559345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8638…cc30backed Yes31c66.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No62c64.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7411859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes33c63.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.912,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes18c62.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.172552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes39c61.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.122347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c61.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.873,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes59c60.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.98942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes50c60.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.31,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.227248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.