Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f73d02bf0b9b3ad09096eb978a5dca11b0256d54887ad588ec6cb72e37e736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 3c | 660$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 9c | 591$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 15c | 420.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 5c | 401$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 61c | 370$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 78c | 349.63$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.17 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 12c | 338.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 21c | 265$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 5c | 263$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 67c | 242.57$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 196.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 189.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…be3fbacked Yes | 51c | 166$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 152.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 15c | 143.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 33c | 141.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 31c | 133.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 112.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…4a27backed Yes | 52c | 79.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 65.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…843cbacked No | 45c | 64.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 61.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…783cbacked Yes | 32c | 57.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 54c | 50.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 57c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.