Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6487e7c41e9b34fc41932e6312e55b3fb8fc55e3101cda857ef4ce1f2c8d6807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce4e…5629backed No | 19c | 674.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 18c | 594.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 28c | 307.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed Yes | 70c | 230.25$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 79c | 187$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 36c | 180$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 147$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 80c | 132.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 28c | 113.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked No | 41c | 110.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 73.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 79c | 71.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…d0c8backed Yes | 67c | 70.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 33c | 54.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…a252backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…a246backed No | 35c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 26c | 49.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 32c | 49.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 31c | 43.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…480cbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…031abacked Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 35c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 71c | 28.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 78c | 26.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Yes | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…c735backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…2528backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 74c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.