Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb48de6e7aba03ab54f9e9792d7fb9290025e6af54d7ddca2e378b9e682d539a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 931.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 652.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 450.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 373$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked No | 10c | 306.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 35c | 295.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 274$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 9c | 243$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 8c | 193$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…5629backed No | 10c | 182.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 106.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 55c | 86.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 76c | 63.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 76c | 36.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.