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Music · resolved market

Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9bc…9ec0backed No20c15,245$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,233.993100%3 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+1,145.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa525…1e7bbacked No25c6,008$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,517.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes56c5,279$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.4320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Yes77c5,250$4,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,034.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6450…ab14backed Yes69c3,376$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c3,034$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.122365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+60.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3007…763abacked Yes74c2,826$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes17c2,554$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.251711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No16c2,533$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.843438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No45c2,164$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes24c2,064$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.131513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+747.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f6…0d1fbacked Yes35c1,785$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c1,753$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.113444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No35c1,731$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.461513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes55c1,561$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.84928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes58c1,353$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.777121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes69c1,350$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2691…232fbacked Yes67c1,202$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.753250%16 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No37c1,177$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.284459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c66…9343backed Yes69c1,162$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes75c1,126$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.934955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No23c1,055$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.83135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes40c1,019$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+97.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes67c1,005$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.33644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No14c863.66$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.23944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+93.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No68c785.42$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.271643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62a…a8ffbacked Yes71c708.14$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe77c…f2bebacked Yes71c704.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No27c688.74$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c679.06$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.021546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No39c675.02$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.692763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No14c668.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.914055%22 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7afb…61eabacked No74c649.99$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No14c635.64$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.12166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+128.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No22c630.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.849124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes61c605.16$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1716633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45ac…d2bbbacked No10c595.61$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c548.11$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.893857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No46c539.66$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+57.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes63c517.47$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.248838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e3…1d9cbacked Yes69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31e2…98a8backed Yes30c499.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+8,233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes49c483.01$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.79757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No36c471.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed No76c405$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c390.81$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.241060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked No11c355.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No20c347.37$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes65c327.59$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes74c290.8$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c281.46$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.613357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No45c271.88$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No51c268.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.39580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+116.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes30c264.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6a…fdc0backed Yes20c259.14$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.173013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick25cpaid+21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe208…d527backed Yes29c253.82$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes33c250$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+285.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No15c245.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.83754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No49c242.8$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.572259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No51c239.37$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.131040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab57…e05fbacked Yes64c238.86$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes63c229.24$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa255…eb9fbacked Yes34c222.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No46c219.19$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.07560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No64c216.94$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.811070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes27c215.37$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.115131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c206.39$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No59c205.87$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.39366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No52c202.06$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.63580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No52c198.42$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes7c197.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.652347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39ff…d637backed Yes80c188.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No36c188.14$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.174161%25 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4611…0764backed Yes26c188.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2d…014ebacked Yes27c187.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No78c186.71$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0f…d336backed Yes57c180$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed Yes70c163.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adc…2b0cbacked Yes28c160$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5937…2100backed Yes78c158.62$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd579…8a6dbacked Yes29c153.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+502.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4c…8131backed Yes43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51d…4982backed No30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…cf4dbacked Yes74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No20c127.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.83956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes75c126.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes75c124.15$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.67549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No42c123.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes22c120$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes68c120$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes72c119.09$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes73c115.65$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes60c115$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.36per pick58cpaid-69.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed Yes50c108$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab27…ab66backed Yes71c107.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.