Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3d0e23a6eead582a5b22222bdb6a04612098121f25e585d6584749e26fd7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 5,265$4,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.42 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 3,746$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 342.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 75c | 319.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 312.54$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 25c | 303.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 31c | 293.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 260.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 244$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 187.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 60c | 179.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 174.62$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 29c | 172.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 24c | 159.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 41c | 151$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 149.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 122.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 19c | 120.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 120.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 102.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…5da0backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 90.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 62c | 88.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 88.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 81.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 79.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 28c | 77.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 76.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 75.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 20c | 65.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 64.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 60.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 54.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 40c | 53.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 52.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 64c | 46.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 43.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 65c | 35.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 29c | 34.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 35c | 34.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 41c | 34.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 33.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…6c56backed Yes | 31c | 32.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 37c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 25.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked No | 65c | 24.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 23.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.