Movies · resolved market
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05fc9470b8fbd45b77a25876ae33db9eb77c1bf044d6cc0661c2299a52c6093a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 13c | 1,371$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.85 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 5c | 945.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 56c | 706.37$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.89 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 42c | 406.05$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.45 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 20c | 304.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.39 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 245.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 8c | 212.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 204.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 26c | 180.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.11 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 167.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 21c | 113.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed Yes | 60c | 88.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 33c | 87.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…6d6abacked No | 57c | 80.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 45.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8e…af79backed No | 38c | 41.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…e1d0backed No | 67c | 37.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…9d03backed No | 67c | 37.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 67c | 37.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf947…016bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 19.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "72 Hours" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.