Movies · resolved market
Will "72 Hours" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6defa3d386e12838d2f6ba0dc518b8068d34916472de94750b0cb22aa1ece445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 29c | 654.56$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 381.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 63c | 285.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 36c | 276.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 164.73$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 111.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 67c | 84.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 83.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 74.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 69.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 30.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "72 Hours" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.