Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b21e3b457c8377055014a38a4b579275295816a7f79fd1e6b9909526fb8165b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 20c | 9,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 72c | 5,565$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.05 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 14c | 3,467$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.07 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…64b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,096$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,355$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.38 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 1,310$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.93 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 24c | 600.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 4c | 599.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 18c | 597.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 10c | 515$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed Yes | 15c | 502.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 481.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 330 | 39.1%129 W · 201 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 23c | 439.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 15c | 434.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 16c | 404.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 5c | 379.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 17c | 369.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 16c | 318.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…4450backed Yes | 23c | 258.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…6c15backed Yes | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 29c | 213.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 18c | 205.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 30c | 174.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0552…0cb5backed Yes | 19c | 149.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 135.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5603…7a24backed Yes | 32c | 131.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…63f1backed Yes | 14c | 110.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 20c | 106.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 30.4%45 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…3e4abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…0332backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…d338backed Yes | 19c | 79.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 27c | 75.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 30c | 73.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 69.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 16c | 64.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 43c | 61.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…baa4backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 71c | 53.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 43c | 51.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 49.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 120 | 30.8%37 W · 83 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked Yes | 29c | 36.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 34.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…d696backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 69c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 71c | 26.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2dd3backed No | 76c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…9b4dbacked No | 70c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…ba26backed Yes | 46c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…d7e3backed No | 75c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.