Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd3b5f935a41b83d678914d69d5294ccf4763e2d36784e819770e043252a945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 10c | 1,350$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 11c | 755$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed Yes | 14c | 718.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 10c | 650$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 10c | 545$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 10c | 527.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 510$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…7decbacked Yes | 7c | 492.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…4450backed Yes | 14c | 424.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5603…7a24backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…d338backed Yes | 12c | 255.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 194.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Yes | 12c | 168.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e6…bed5backed Yes | 14c | 147.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Yes | 20c | 129.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…f3febacked Yes | 15c | 124.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 118.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 74c | 114.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 61.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 36c | 54.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xada3…c449backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked No | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?Yes won
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.