Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4aa36d623764931b362cabd389ef1ae1940c40af5ca40c1f6c613b2c68a30a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b5…5356backed Yes | 33c | 609.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 74c | 388.04$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 279.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 278.46$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 28c | 245.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 17c | 131.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 127.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 125.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 121.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 116.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 66c | 110.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 16c | 99.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 25c | 96.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 88.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 83.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 61.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 57.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 36c | 51.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 45c | 48.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 44.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 43.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 38c | 43.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 41.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 40.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 49c | 39.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 35c | 39.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 38.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 38.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 37.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 39c | 35.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 39c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 33.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 54c | 18.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 76c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.