Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa286d7efb4382915d9c8caa8b4861451e12cb9accbc6ed23bbc76bcc59fea41b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 30c | 397.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.79 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2049…c390backed Yes | 36c | 298.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 10c | 275.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 218.35$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 207.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 172.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 35c | 157.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 35c | 153.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 140.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 32c | 121.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 121.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 109.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 70c | 108.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 99.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 94.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 22c | 88.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 87.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 86.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 84.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 67.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 37c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 62.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 58.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 54.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 53.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 54c | 53.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 53.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 52.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 33c | 51.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 51.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 46.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 24c | 45.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 44.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 40.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 38.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 36.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 33.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 33c | 32.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 31.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 66c | 30.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 35c | 28.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…dc18backed No | 46c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 24.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 53c | 24.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 75c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 23.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 63c | 21.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 20.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 19.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 18.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 68c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.