Movies · resolved market
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054f845eeea9b5f9d3ae810cc47cdd921de5c4ce904042b099253141f5e63e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Yes | 19c | 1,316$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,213$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.05 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 13c | 515.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…d3a6backed Yes | 29c | 394.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 365.68$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked No | 54c | 360.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 21c | 345.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…e918backed Yes | 37c | 339.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 15c | 323.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 67c | 312.87$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 64c | 305.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 14c | 216.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 182.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 160.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 156$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 38c | 155$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…4171backed No | 58c | 125.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…1983backed No | 70c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 119.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35eb…157dbacked Yes | 14c | 109.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 107.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 17c | 96.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed No | 74c | 82.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 75c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 39c | 80.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 39c | 71.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 59.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 53.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 50.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…5ed0backed No | 74c | 45.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 38.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 74c | 29.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 62c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 73c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?this page
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?Yes won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.