Movies · resolved market
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba2a7ce2715a135b2fce21e13e78aa4ddd7a16159310b2f7bae73dc70f0def73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 16c | 1,832$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.97 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 542.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 76c | 485$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…5ed0backed Yes | 4c | 384.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…74dfbacked Yes | 36c | 268.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 74c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 76.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 74c | 75.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 56.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 38.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 64c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 53c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?this page
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?Yes won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.