Movies · resolved market
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99c7e88422df97c77f51913694945eb1afb41c7dee54fc575954d40706acae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 14c | 529.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 10c | 511.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…7195backed Yes | 12c | 469.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 18c | 337.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 287.81$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.07 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 16c | 273$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…c349backed Yes | 79c | 252.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 246.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 240.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 76c | 219.7$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 14c | 213.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.46 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 79c | 199.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 18c | 190.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 10c | 186.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 11c | 164.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 19c | 157$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 153.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 10c | 149.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 140.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 27c | 112.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 110.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 9c | 107.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 105.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…ef7cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 15c | 96.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 15c | 95.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 39c | 89.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 61c | 80.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…5ed0backed Yes | 25c | 79.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 40c | 49.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 73c | 43.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 76c | 29.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes | 61c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 56c | 24.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?this page
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.