TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d8c…757abacked No14c529.94$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No10c511.05$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.558247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12511633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf1…7195backed Yes12c469.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.05933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…07a3backed Yes18c337.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.371822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c287.81$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.079951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes16c273$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.267241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9183…c349backed Yes79c252.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.65540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No47c246.72$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c240.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3216737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes76c219.7$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.629034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes14c213.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.4629735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes75c200$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.347328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No79c199.77$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.894247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes18c190.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5119532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No10c186.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.842962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes11c164.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5323321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No19c157$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No11c153.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.468653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No10c149.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c140.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No36c140$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.610645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes63c120$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.821931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes27c112.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.124936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No72c110.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4622030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5912442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No9c107.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c105.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2719133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc952…ef7cbacked No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No15c96.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.198225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No15c95.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.977126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7056…c95cbacked Yes39c89.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.892263.6%14 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+87.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2583…261abacked Yes61c80.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.331361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6901…5ed0backed Yes25c79.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.37560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+41.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.776747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3723130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes27c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.651752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.034252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes40c49.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.795952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.926833.8%23 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed No73c43.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No28c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2650%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No76c29.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.68560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes61c24.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.611030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes56c24.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.965650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.963545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-25.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.