Movies · resolved market
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaea0f1d6af1ca91d331e5adefd5df4f9905f16bd0b34b54c37930f69a20d6a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Yes | 6c | 2,792$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 75c | 951.18$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.91 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 19c | 657$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 26c | 603.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 29c | 456.89$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…d3a6backed Yes | 41c | 394.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 68c | 390.37$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 31c | 323.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 13c | 274.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 246.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 33c | 238.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 67c | 203$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 181.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 161$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 151.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 31c | 131$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 10c | 115.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 115.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 69c | 98.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 54c | 86.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 63.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de3…b489backed Yes | 32c | 61.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 35c | 59.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 59c | 56.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 50.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 29c | 47.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 72c | 46.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 56c | 44.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…c0e3backed No | 57c | 43.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 25c | 39.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…5ed0backed No | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 32.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 69c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 57c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 66c | 25.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…7a1fbacked Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?this page
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?No won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?Yes won
- Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.