Music · resolved market
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8983985de8d767d942a97509aeb69c3388cdaad37843fa53d0488cdc5b9edff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 63c | 2,687$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.29 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 59c | 879.07$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 62c | 627.1$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 51c | 512.48$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.77 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 69c | 386.89$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…69b3backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 6c | 290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 72c | 274.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 191.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 168.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 20c | 161.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 52c | 159.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 155.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 150.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 8c | 126.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…a884backed Yes | 63c | 118.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 62c | 104$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 95.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 29c | 94.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 44c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 20c | 78.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +290.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 59.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 37c | 54.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 50.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 49.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 74c | 49.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd9…fdcebacked No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 42c | 45.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 77c | 42.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 30c | 36.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 65c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 77c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?this page
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.