Music · resolved market
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac99f3eedb82644a2472e85bbca950b61224bd8ef9e02b0ad2e4624d60c12ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 17c | 282.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 18c | 261.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 134.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 17c | 82.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 71c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 80c | 22.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?this page
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.