Music · resolved market
Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6bd17f4e733ef988c22b56949b1ed084a698f0e03cbd7add971f1e1cfbb8ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 51c | 746.25$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 74c | 605$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 58c | 486$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.65 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 30c | 253.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 33c | 147.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 31c | 131$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 83.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 51c | 78.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 42c | 70.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 64.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 60.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 53.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 28c | 48.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 40.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 36.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?this page
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
- Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?Yes won
- Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.