Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b61b3f82d30ed38a93232c9c2777aaf073f143e5d0d2e0383a858a2dd2f7a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 8,293$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 8,112$4,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,296.8 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 14c | 1,473$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 799.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 775.62$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 500$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 407.47$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 355$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 320.82$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 311.46$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 245.24$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 78c | 240$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 60c | 231.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 38c | 203.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 197.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 57c | 188.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 186$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 180.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 178.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 178.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 170.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 60c | 151$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 38c | 145.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 143.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 139.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 121.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 119.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 114.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 112.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 105.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 105.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 103.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 60c | 103.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 53c | 101.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 31c | 99.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 54c | 83.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 61c | 81.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 48c | 76.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 65c | 72.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 57c | 68.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 57c | 67.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 59.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 57.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 46c | 56.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 56.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 56.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 29c | 55.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 51.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 50.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 49.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…8146backed Yes | 25c | 47.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 46.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 45.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 44.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 58c | 42.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 53c | 42.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 26c | 42.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 53c | 41.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 59c | 40.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 46c | 37.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 37.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 52c | 37.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 56c | 34.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 38c | 34.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed No | 57c | 32.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 57c | 32.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 52c | 32.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 31.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 27.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 65c | 27.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 26.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 25.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 24.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 54c | 24.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.