Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae41dd6f025a71b94cfd697fb11d28c1c46a231d77f01648bc53c5361cfefaa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,339$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 837.42$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 820.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 507.61$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 435.63$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 330$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 327.91$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 307.4$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 306.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 28c | 277.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 67c | 276.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.72 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 246.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 232.41$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 202.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 201.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 20c | 194.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.36 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 193.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 186.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 39c | 179.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 179.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 156.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 70c | 149$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 146.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 137.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 136$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 17c | 120.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 114.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 64c | 109.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 105.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 94.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 88.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 83.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 72.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 72.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 18c | 72.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 69.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 67c | 68.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 30c | 66.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 29c | 66.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 29c | 60.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…d07cbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked No | 73c | 51.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 31c | 51.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 49.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 48.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 31c | 45.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 44.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 38.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 37.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 31c | 36.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7caa…f4efbacked No | 71c | 35.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 34.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 34.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…bc8ebacked No | 71c | 33.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 33.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…b706backed No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 27.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 50c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed No | 65c | 24.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 22.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…c579backed No | 71c | 21.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 21.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 59c | 20.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 17.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 70c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 77c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.