World Politics · resolved market
Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe25219d8cebbc789e66f1b9276525a903b9f044f145633ad6121af335d2b85a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2128…f203backed Yes | 31c | 1,401$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 79c | 927.32$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.54 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 14c | 857.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…b4aabacked Yes | 11c | 457.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 410.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…87cbbacked Yes | 14c | 211.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 196.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 31c | 145$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 136$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 22c | 118.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 76c | 102.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 72.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…2e99backed No | 64c | 57.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked No | 76c | 55.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 62c | 27.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?this page
- Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Boaz Bismuth win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?Yes won
- Will Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.