World Politics · resolved market
Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa99cf8c9f37ec73da6342064ddcbbc87559df3a78b04f6595f6f9113a4b183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 8c | 431.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 18c | 105.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 17c | 69.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?this page
- Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Boaz Bismuth win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?Yes won
- Will Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.