World Politics · resolved market
Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf88ccac2af2b0757e76a0a00426bcce3dd4839c53528176ca8a632ac8848d920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 50c | 1,972$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.26 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 8c | 370$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…f41fbacked Yes | 3c | 350.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +1,387.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 333$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb89…a59dbacked Yes | 32c | 309.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 292.55$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 254.93$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 229$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…735ebacked Yes | 59c | 168.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…76e6backed Yes | 14c | 123.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 119.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 10c | 109.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 16c | 103.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 102.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed No | 78c | 70.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…5db9backed Yes | 74c | 51.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Yes | 28c | 47.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +364.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…7e7cbacked Yes | 35c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked Yes | 40c | 39.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?this page
- Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Boaz Bismuth win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Israel Katz win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Nir Barkat win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No won
- Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.